Why we need direct flights to India now, not after 3-4 years?

Will the forced cancellation of Prime Minister’s flight to India drive home a message to country’s top political leadership about a pressing need for a direct flight between the two countries immediately now, rather than expecting it growing organically in 3-4 years?

The general expectations among the experts of India-NZ relations have an expected horizon of 3 to 4 years before direct flights become actually operational between the two countries.

It is reported that in “absence of interest” from any major airlines so far to cover the route immediately it may take 3 to 4 years before direct flights between India and New Zealand could become operational.

This is the situation after a recently signed new deal of air services agreement between New Zealand and India earlier this year in June which opens the door for a direct flight between the two countries.

What is important to note here is the fact that despite such perceived absence of interest among the commercial airlines, the main argument that forms the basis of having a horizon of 3 to 4 years before direct flights could be really operational is the “size of the market” and the “projected growth” of this market in next few years, in comparison to that of the Chinese market.

The tourist flow between the two countries has grown at 12.2% by the year end. Till March this year, nearly 52,000 New Zealanders travelled to India, whereas around 46,500 Indians travelled to New Zealand during the same period.

These numbers are projected to grow to an estimate of 92,000 incoming visitors from India by the end of 2020.

This is being considered as a dwarf projection among some quarters in media in comparison to China which is projected to grow at 10 times faster than India and is expected to bring more that 900,000 international visitors to New Zealand by the year 2020.

It is this perceived difference about the market size between the two Asian giants India and China, which has a potential to disorient the efforts needed “today” to develop the Indian market –a reflection of the larger trend in comparing India with China in terms of the economic potential offered to New Zealand. India is considered as an important market over a longer period of time.

To describe this current situation in Prime Minister’s words in explaining his forced-layover at the Australian town Townsville in his way to India where he described the situation as “sub-optimal,” it is argued here that the current expectation horizon of 3-4 years before direct flights could become operational is a sub-optimal situation.

Leaving any market to grow on its own, before its actual benefit could be reaped in by all having a stake in that market is often not the best situation. A political oversight is must to develop a market and often fill the critical gap left by the market.

The NZ-India direct flight market is definitely a market that needs a sharp political oversight

 The general argument conceded in formulating such expectations is in not having enough number of visitors to make a direct flight between the two countries economically viable for any carrier.

This is in complete contrast to Tourism New Zealand’s own admission that states that “China is New Zealand's second-largest visitor market. It's growing middle-class has seen sustained growth in Chinese visitor arrivals to New Zealand over the last five years. Increased air capacity from the two direct carriers, China Southern Airlines and Air New Zealand - with new players Air China and China Eastern also establishing year-round services in 2015 - has helped this trend.”

If the goal is to get numbers of traveller upscaled to those of level of visitors from China, then we will have to respond to the needs of the Indian market of travellers.

The World Tourism Organisation predicts that India will account for 50 million outbound tourists by 2020.

What is our preparation to divert a significant chunk of these potential travellers to New Zealand?

A direct flight between the two countries should be seen as a facilitator of getting more traffic rather than an outcome of an already increased traffic.

It may be helpful to understand the dynamics of the market through a comparison with the international student market.

Earlier Chinese market of international students had a majority share in New Zealand’s education exports.

But when New Zealand Education worked aggressively in the Indian market tailoring their deliverables according to the needs of the Indian market, the Indian share of international student market has grown dramatically.

According to an estimate of Education Counts – a government body, the percentage change in international student enrolment by the origin of the country witnessed a sharp decline of 37% in Chinese students coming to New Zealand from 2006 – 2010 against a massive increase of 346% in the number of Indian students.

A total of 20,227 Indian international students studied in New Zealand in 2014 as opposed to 30,179 Chinese international students studied in New Zealand in 2014.

The Indian market has grown rapidly in response to proactive actions of the New Zealand government.

In a similar vein, some urgent attention is required by the New Zealand government to develop the Indian travellers market, and facilitating a direct flight between the two countries should be an immediate priority.