New Zealand’s annual net migration gain has dropped to 38,800, marking its lowest level since December 2022, The New Zealand Herald reported. This sharp decline comes amid easing arrivals and a record-breaking number of permanent or long-term departures, which reached 131,100 in the year to October 2024, according to provisional data.
Peak and Decline
Annual migrant arrivals reached a provisional peak of 235,100 in the year ended October 2023. During the same period, annual net migration also peaked with a gain of 136,000. However, a significant shift followed, with New Zealand citizens departing at or near record levels in recent months.
Over 77,000 New Zealand citizens left the country during the October 2024 year, resulting in a net loss of 53,000 citizens.
Stabilising Trends
Despite the decline, ASB senior economist Mark Smith highlighted some signs of stabilisation in recent monthly data. “We expect annual net migration inflows into New Zealand to ease below 30,000 persons by early 2025 and to modestly strengthen thereafter,” he said.
October saw the highest monthly seasonally adjusted net permanent and long-term inflow in three months, with a net gain of 2,790 people. “Monthly arrivals rose 5.3% and hit their highest level since May, whereas departures fractionally edged higher,” Smith noted. He added that the three-month average net inflow, which had been steadily declining since mid-2023, is now beginning to rise.
Persistent Outflows to Australia
Smith also pointed to a large ongoing net outflow to Australia, with March 2024 figures showing a net loss of 30,100 people to the neighbouring country. “We anticipate departures will remain historically high as Kiwis seek better opportunities abroad,” he said.
Non-New Zealand Citizen Migration
Net migration gains for non-New Zealand citizens have also cooled significantly, dropping to 91,700, down from the October 2023 peak of 176,900. Nonetheless, permanent and long-term arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens remain historically high at 144,900 annually, though the pace is slowing.
India, China, and the Philippines continue to be the largest sources of non-New Zealand citizen arrivals. Migration departures of non-New Zealand citizens appear to have plateaued at around 53,300 annually.
Looking Ahead
The data reflects a turning point in New Zealand’s migration trends, with rising departures and slowing arrivals contributing to the lowest annual net migration gain in nearly two years. Economists and policymakers will be watching closely as trends stabilise and adjust in the coming months.
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