Property investors may be getting ready to find bargains in the bigger centres, but don't expect the housing market to shoot back to life, QV says.
It has released its latest data, which reflects a flat year.
By its measure, house prices moved up 0.1 percent nationally in December and finished the year 0.3 percent lower than the start of 2024.
QV operations manager James Wilson said there was little evidence to show that values were likely to pick up substantially over summer.
"It's been 'steady as she goes' throughout much of last year, and it looks like it's going to stay that way for a while yet. It's a new year, but the same restraining factors are still very much at play - including sustained weakness in the labour market, a high cost of living, credit constraints, and a surplus of properties for sale on the market today," he said.
Wilson said there had been an increase in demand for housing due to falling interest rates but that had not yet put pressure on prices.
"However, we also haven't seen quite so many reductions this quarter in particular, which indicates that we're now at or very close to equilibrium in the market."
Only Rotorua, Marlborough and Queenstown had a drop in average values in the last quarter of 2024.
Auckland's were up 1.3 percent, Wellington 0.4 percent and Christchurch 1.1 percent.
"What we're beginning to see in this data set and have done for the last couple of months is increased competition within what we call the main urban centres.
"If you look at the last couple of years, the strength has been in smaller, regional New Zealand. First-home buyers have been really active and targeting the outer fringe entry-level stock. More recently we are seeing where investors have been dabbling their toes back in the market has been fringe main urban centres, especially around Auckland, Tauranga and Hamilton... what it looks like at the moment is they are beginning to compete with first-home buyers still looking to buy."
He said main centres were "not taking off by any means, value-wise" but there were some signs of strength.
"In previous cycles of the housing market that is typically how things go, the recovery is back in the bigger urban centres and then spreads around the country."
Wilson said investors seemed to be getting ready to buy. "Mortgage advisers say a lot of investor clients are taking the time to work out 'where does their portfolio sit, what has happened to my asset value over the last couple of years', getting poised and ready to buy."
He said when that investor group decided the market was right to enter they would act quickly. "The coalface feedback valuers are getting is a lot of investors are ready to buy now but in no hurry. Things aren't beginning to heat up, interest rates rate still above where many of them that are carrying bigger debt numbers would like them to be."
Wilson said, unlike previous market cycles, there was likely to be a more "gentle re-entry" this time. "The other groups, first-home buyers and owner-occupiers, are very cautious. I don't think we'll get the same sort of rush back in previous cycles."