Analysis: Migrants. The coalition government’s faultline was expected to be tested as Christopher Luxon returned to office in Wellington Monday after a successful trip to India last week. But it’s not as bad as news reports today might suggest. Really.
In an interview with 1News political editor Maiki Sherman, aired on Sunday, Christopher Luxon indicated the government is “very open” to reconsidering the heavy scrutiny it applies to India visa applicants – to ensure the country is able to draw the overseas talent it needs.
He was responding to a broader question on whether he expects India to bring up visa issues as the two countries begin negotiations for a free trade deal, expected this week.
Luxon said Immigration New Zealand had been advised to balance the immigration risks “we’re trying to manage” with the need to stay competitive with countries like Australia and the United Kingdom.
What he presumably meant was – let’s not overdo the risk management. Approval rates for Indian visa applicants – both for tourism and study – have plummeted over the last few years.
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters was on Monday asked for his thoughts on the subject. "Do you really think Immigration New Zealand is going to help? Get serious for goodness sake," he was quoted as saying by RNZ.
At first, it might appear to be at odds with Luxon’s intention. But it is not. The two are talking about completely different things.
When Luxon says he is willing to “fix what’s not working”, the prime minister is referring to the mobility of students and businesspeople – those who need temporary visas to move in and out of New Zealand.
Nowhere has he suggested – not yet, at least – opening up more pathways to residency as part of a potential trade deal.
The deputy prime minister is talking about something more fundamental to what his party New Zealand First espouses – the country doesn’t need too many migrants settling here for good.
When asked for his views on Monday, Peters seemed to have no issue with New Zealand being opened up to India for education and work, but drew the line at those migrants settling here permanently.
"Economies like Singapore, and dare I say it all around the world, bring people in to do jobs. The United Arab Emirates do that, all the Gulf countries do it, but when they finish the job they go home.
"And that's what we can do, we can still get all the benefits without making the stupid mistake of a failed immigration policy that says, we're so bad at what we do, we're so bad at education, that we're going to give them the incentive to actually come here and immigrate to our country."
The prime minister returned home Saturday after a five-day trip to India, during which the two countries agreed to begin negotiations for a Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
In his interview with 1News, the prime minister was asked if New Zealand is too scrutinous on visa applicants, especially Indians?
“Yeah, look, immigration's always one of those things you've got a lot of risk around,” he said. “But I agree with you…”
Immigration New Zealand rejected 45,482 of the 156,734 visitor visa applications it received in 2023 - a rejection rate of 29 per cent.
The rejection rate has since improved slightly, dropping to 21 per cent in 2024 and 19 per cent in the first two months of 2025.
Luxon indicated his government is keen on making sure border restrictions are not so tight they put New Zealand out of the market for overseas talent.
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